Cyclical Earnings and Employment Transitions by Carlos Carrillo-Tudela

Join us for this weeks Macroeconomics Research Seminar, Autumn Term 2021.

Professor Carlos Carrillo-Tudela from the Department of Economics, at the University of Essex will present their research on Cyclical Earnings and Employment Transitions

Abstract

Recessions increase unemployment risk and decrease flows across employers and occupations. This paper explores the cyclical differences in the earnings change distribution---focusing on the more volatile tails. Because earnings changes are larger when workers change jobs and even larger when switching occupations, cyclicality in the incidence of flows directly affects the tails of the distribution of earnings changes. However, the business cycle also affects earnings outcomes conditional on a job, employment status and/or occupation change. Because job and occupation switching is endogenous, we introduce a business cycle model with on-the-job search and occupational mobility, which allows us to structurally decompose the contribution of flows and returns. Cyclical fluctuations in exogenous flows, along with worsening returns, drive dynamics in the bottom tail of earnings growth while returns affect changes in the top tail. 

This seminar will be held at 1pm at the Colchester Campus in 5B.111a. This event is open to all levels of study and is also open to the public, but will also be held on Zoom.

To register your place, please contact the seminar organisers.

This event is part of the Macroeconomics Research Seminar Series.