A (Plea) Offer you Can’t Refuse by Luke Taylor

Join us for this weeks Econometrics Research Seminar, Summer Term 2024

Luke Taylor, from Department of Economics and Business Economics at Aarhus University, will present their research on A (Plea) Offer you Can’t Refuse.

Abstract

In the United States, plea bargaining has become the dominant method for determining guilt, with approximately 90% of defendants opting to waive their right to a fair trial by pleading guilty. This paper explores why so many make this choice by developing a generalized Roy model that incorporates ex-ante uncertainty and allows for non-risk-neutral agents. Using exogenous variation in judge leniency, we apply this model to case-level data from North Carolina. Our results show the important role that risk aversion plays in defendants' decisions and how substantial plea discounts induces guilty pleas from the majority.

This seminar will be held on campus, is open to all levels of study and is also open to the public. To register your place and gain access to the webinar, please contact the seminar organisers.

This event is part of the Econometrics Research Seminar Series.